电力系统短期负荷预测方法的研究.doc

郑州大学 硕士学位论文 电力系统短期负荷预测方法的研究 姓名：张德玲 申请学位级别：硕士 专业：电力系统及其自动化 导教师：陈根永郑州人学丁.学《 1.?论文 Abstract Short-Term Load Forecasting{STLF) is one of the most important contents of running and dispatching of power system. It can be economic and reasonable to arrange start and stop of the Generator in wire net, reduce otiose revolve the storage capacity. It can be reasonable to arrange Generator the maintain plan, assurance normal produce and live of society, raise the economic efficiency and social efficiency of Electric power enterprise； Under the situation that the energy is increasingly lacking currently, the national energy development strategy requests gradually to reduce energy consumption of the unit GDP, the production and consumption of electric power increasingly go to maiket , short-term toad forecasting result become importance basis of drawing up the electric power market bargain plan. So these put short-term load forecasting forward a higher request. This text analyze the present condition and Various methods and mathematics model of the short-term load forecasting. Considering the fact, the specific Comparison of the commercial electricity and life electricity of residents of the recent years is more and more big in the all society electricity, these loads are subjected to influence by load day type and weather and etc; Moreover, the region load level isnt all too high generally, and the load constitute is simple generally, so these loads are also effected easily by toad day type and weather factors. According to some area fact ’this text takes day type and weather as the main influence factors of the region short-term load forecasting. Because of indetermination characteristic of the some influence factora, this text takes fuzzy method to process data. The normal calculate way cant reflect goodly weather condition and other outside factors to the influence for load forecasting, in recent years,, the artificial neural networic method etc have height nonlinea