电力负荷预测方法研究111.doc

电力负荷预测方法研究 摘 要 负荷预测对电力系统规划和运行极其重要。准确的负荷预测是实现规划方案科学性、正确性的依据和保证，也是保证电网供电可靠性和优质经济运行的一项前瞻性工作。 负荷预测的方法很多，例如经典方法：指数平滑法、趋势外推法、时间序列 法、回归分析法等。20 世纪 80 年代后，一些新兴学科理论开始逐渐应用到负荷预测中，例如灰色数学理论、模糊数学、专家系统、人工神经网络、粗糙集理论、数据挖掘技术、小波分析理论、混沌理论等等。 本文主要论述了电力负荷预测与分类、负荷预测的基本过程和常用方法的基本原理。 关键词： 负荷预测, 电力系统, 方法 Abstract Load forecasting is extremely important for power system planning and operation. The accuracy of the load forecasting ensures the planning scheme to be scientific .It is also a prospective work to guarantee the reliability and economic operation of power system. There are many methods for the load forecasting such as classic method including exponential smoothing, trend projection, time series method, regression analysis method et al. After the 80’s of the 20thcentury, some new discipline theory are gradually applied in the load forecasting , such as grey math theory，fuzzy mathematics，experts system, artificial neural network, rough sets theory, data mining technology, wavelet analysis theory, chaos theory et al. This paper details the principles and various forcasting techniques for load forcasting, and then introduces the basic forcasting process. Key words: load forecasting, power system， method