汇丰银行-全球黄金展望.pdfVIP

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汇丰银行-全球黄金展望.pdf

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21 December 2017   Gold Outlook COMMODITIES PRECIOUS METALS  Goldilocked with few bears Global We see gold locked in a narrow range in 2018, supported by James Steel financial market risks and EM demand; rate rises factored in Chief Precious Metals Analyst HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. james.steel@ Central bank, ETF and bar demand should rise modestly; coin +1 212 525 3117 sales may rise from low levels; mine and scrap supply limited Price-sensitive EM buyers to set floor for range; our average 2018 forecast is USD1,284/oz and USD1,314/oz for 2019 Gold price outlook and forecasts We anticipate only moderately higher gold prices in 2018 and 2019, based mostly on expectations of greater safe haven buying and recovering jewelry demand. Tighter monetary policies globally may create headwinds to rallies but are largely priced in. A stable USD should not weigh on prices, but may limit the upside. Any increase in financial market volatility or risks may aid gold. As a result, gold is likely to remain locked in a trading range of USD1,161/oz to USD1,355/oz in 2018. We highlight the following drivers: Tighter G3 rates priced in; less certain guidance/other risks may aid gold Tightening by the Fed and other major central banks lends a potentially negative backdrop for go