Behavioural Finance Cortes E英文电子书.pdf

LGT Capital Management Innovation. Expertise. Performance. 07 Daniel Kahneman has integrated discoveries made in connection with psychological research into economic analysis, thereby laying the foundation for a whole new field of study. Dr. Kahneman’s most important findings have been in the area of decision-making behavior under uncertainty. Within the framework of prospect theory, he shows how decisions may deviate systematically from the predictions of traditional eco- nomic theories. Daniel Kahneman – Decision under uncertainty 08 The biases of judgment and decision-making have be trusted, and it must be supplemented or replaced been called ‘cognitive illusions’. Like visual illusions, by more critical or analytical thinking - the equivalent the mistakes of intuitive reasoning are not easily of using a ruler to dispel a visual illusion. eliminated. Consider the familiar example in Exhibit 1. Although you can use a rule to convince yourself that We follow a long tradition in discussions of decision the two horizontal lines are of equal length, you will making, which distinguishes two elements: continue to see the second line as much longer than the first. Beliefs and preferences Decision theorists argue that any significant decision can be described as a choice between gambles, because the outcomes of possible options are not