我国居民消费结构与消费趋势模型分析.doc

我国居民消费结构与消费趋势模型分析 我国居民消费结构与消费趋势模型分析 专业名称：数学与应用数学 班 级： 200302 学生姓名： 胡其立 指导教师： 赵秀恒 完成时间： 2007年5月 摘 要 近年来,我国宏观经济形势发生了重大变化,经济发展速度加快,居民收入稳定增加,在国家连续出台住房、教育、医疗等各项改革措施和实施“刺激消费、扩大内需、拉动经济增长”经济政策的影响下,全国居民的消费支出也强劲增长,消费结构发生了显著变化,消费结构不合理现象得到了一定程度的改善。为了进一步改善我国居民的消费结构,正确引导消费,提高我国居民的消费水平和生活质量,有必要对我国各省市居民的消费结构进行考察和研究,以期发现特点和规律。本文利用 2006 年《中国统计年鉴》提供的资料，对全国城乡居民人均消费水平、消费需求进行量化分析，从而为准确预测消费品市场变化提供依据,为科学地制定消费政策、正确地引导居民消费提供科学依据，为政府制定发展计划和长远规划提供参考。 本文主要利用因子分析方法，聚类分析方法，对全国31省市居民的消费水平进行了统计分析，从而得到了各地居民消费水平的一些特点和规律，有利于各市了解各自的弱点和优势，进一步改善和提高消费水平。并采用“双对数模型”对我国居民的消费结构进行了趋势分析,通过“聚类分析”对我国各地区居民消费结构之间的异同进行考察并作比较研究,总结出了我国居民消费呈现富裕型、娱乐教育文化服务类消费攀升的趋势特点。 关键词 消费结构；消费趋势；因子分析；聚类分析 ABSTRACT In recent years, major changes have taken place in China#039;s macroeconomic situation, the rate of economic growth is accelerating, people#039;s income has increased steadily, in the state has introduced housing, education, health care and implementation of various reform measures, such as ;stimulating consumption, expanding domestic demand, spur economic growth, ;the economic policy under the influence of the country#039;s residents have strong consumer spending growth consumption structure has undergone significant changes in the consumption structure has been improved to a certain extent unreasonable3. To further improve our people#039;s consumption structure and correctly guide consumption, the level of consumption and improve the quality of life of our residents. it is necessary for the consumption structure of China#039;s provinces and municipalities to inspect and study the residents to discover the characteristics and laws. Using 2006 data provided by the ;China Statistical Yearbook;, the nation#039;s per capita consumption level of urban and rural residents. Consumer demand for quantitative analysis in order to accurately predict changes in the consumer goods market to provide a basis for scientifically formulat