国际资金循环分析的理论模型与应用.pdf

1 「數據分析」 2006 年 8 月，1 卷 4 期，頁 1-20 国际资金循环分析的理论模型与应用 张 南 1 摘 要 本研究的核心在于建立国际 资金循环分析的理论模型。本文提出了国际 资金循环的概念,明确了国际资金循环分析的理论框架。依据此理论框架,分 析考察了中国对外资金循环的特点及问题。然后根据此分析框架的理论延伸, 建立了国际资金循环分析的理论模型。最后运用模型展开计量分析,推导出 中国对外资金流量中的结构性因素及循环性因素的数量关系,提出了的政策 建议。国际资金循环分析模型试图为展开宏观金融分析提供一种新的思路, 推动资金流量分析理论 与实践的发展。 关键词 :资金循环、国际收支、国际资本流动、国际资金循环分析模型 1广岛修道大学经济科学部( 日本), 经济统计学教授 收件日期：2006.06.12 ；修改日期：2006.07.09 ；接受日期：2006.07.15 2 Journal of Data Analysis August 2006, Vol.1 No.4, pp.1-20 The Theoretical Model and Application of the Global Flow of Funds Analysis Nan Zhang 2 Abstract The Global flow of funds analysis analyzes the characteristics of the financial liquidity of funds. It is tied to investment, savings, the current balance and international capital flows. The main focus of this paper is to build a model of global-fund-flows. This paper presents the general idea of the global-flow-of-funds, and explains the outlines of theoretical analysis. The financial markets contain the debts and credits of funds as a whole, including the total process of financial liquidity. When the items of financial markets are investigated more closely, the markets exhibit inflows of domestic funds, overseas funds by domestic savings and credit loans of banks as fund-sources (fund inflows). On the other hand, there also exist fund supply to the domestic economy, and fund outflows to overseas in fund uses (fund outflows). The theoretical model of the global-flow-of-funds analysis is proposed wit