天威新能源：张凤鸣-光伏太阳能的现状及前景.ppt

Grid-connected application Isolated application Examples of applications The solar cell production in China in recent years. The percentage increase of solar cell production in China in recent years. industrial development The solar cell production in the world in recent years. The percentage increase of solar cell production in the world in recent years. The cost trend of solar PV 0.13 0.18 0.10 It is indicated that the cost of solar PV will be dropping to the level of conventional energy then in around 2017 Semiconductor in 1960s Popular in 1980s Computer in 1970s Popular in 1990s Laser 1960s Popular in 1990s The feature of modern technologies It normally took about 20 ~ 30 years from small scale to popular 4. The further development of solar PV The exponential expansion for solar PV next Popular in 1990s Solar PV 2000s It is shown that there is still quite large room for the manufacturing cost to be lower for bulk silicon solar PV although the technology has already been mature. As indicated in industry, there exists also a learning curve for solar PV, or a cost drop of 20% when the volume is doubled. In addition to the capacity effect, the continuous improvement of PV technology will be the driving force for the cost dropping as well. In total:2575 kWh/kWp Energy consumed for the main conponents of solar PV: 737 kWh/kWp The total energy consumed: 3312 kWh/kWp Energy recovery period ---the years for a solar PV system to generate the same amount of energy consumed during the manufacturing of the whole system. The annually radiant hours and energy recovery period for different areas of China 　 Beijing Lasa Chengdu Shanghai Total energy consumed (kWh/kWp) 3312 3312 3312 3312 horizontal(kWh/m2) 1516 2191 1053 1314 inclined(kWh/m2) 1748 2453 1180 1445 Energy generated annually(kWh/kWp) 1381 1938 931 1142 Energy recovery period (years) 2.40 1.71 3.56 2.90 Currently, the energy recovery period is between 1.5-6 years, much less than