一个美国教授对美国攻打伊朗的分析.ppt

WAR WITH IRAN?A Geopolitical Backgrounder Dr. Zoltán Grossman Member of the Faculty (Geography Native American Studies) The Evergreen State College, Olympia, Washington /g/grossmaz Iran and Iraq Iran more geopolitically pivotal Persian/Iranian Empires Political map Shi’a and Sunni regionsShi’as in dark green. The holiest Shiite cities of Karbala and Najafare within Iraq; Iraqi Ayatollah Sistani was born in Iran. Ethnic map Persian (Farsi-speaking) core Ethnic minorities straddle boundaries Ethnic groups energy resources Western Iran Persia never a colony? Anglo-Persian War, 1856-57 Anglo-Russian “Great Game” spheres of influence, 1907 British take oil in Arab region, 1908 Oil economy Reza Shah, 1921 World War II After World War II Mossadegh elected, 1951 CIA coup, 1953 Shah Reza Pahlavi Shah under fire, 1970s Revolution begins, 1978 Shah overthrown, 1979 Revolutionary pluralism Hostage crisis, 1979-81 Islamic Republic Carter Doctrine “American vital interests in the Central Region are long-standing. With over 65% of the world’s oil reserves located in the Gulf states of the region— from which the United States imports nearly 20% of its needs; Western Europe 43%; and Japan, 68%--the international community must have free and unfettered access to the region’s resources.” --General J. H. Binford Peay III, Central Command (1997) Cited in Blood and Oil by Michael Klare (Metropolitan Books, 2004)   U.S. naval war, 1987-88 Rafsanjani presidency, 1989-97 Khatami presidency, 1997-2005 PipelinePoliticsIn a new “Great Game, ” Caspian Basin oil gas routes contested by:Turkey (U.S.) Afghanistan /Pakistan (U.S.) Russia Iran(most direct) Bases for wars, or wars for bases? Iraq War strategy:Encircling Iran? U.S. Iranian strategies in Iraq Ahmadinejad victory, 2005 “Search for Enemies”Ex-CIA official John Stockwell analysis:U.S. government creates Third World enemiesto distract attention from domestic problems Nuclear program