中国人均消费能源与人均国民生产总值的协整分析.doc

河北经贸大学毕业论文 专业名称： 统计学 班 级： 20002 学生姓名： 指导教师： 李双成 完成时间： 200年5月 能源消费与经济增长的关系是能源经济学的一个热点研究问题。能源消费与国内生产总值之间的关系，对于我国的能源环境和经济的可持续发展十分重要。本文以人均能源消费和人均经济增长为视角，探索两者间的变化规律。基于1980~2005年我国人均能源消费和人均国内生产总值的数据资料，运用协整分析方法和误差修正模型，对两者间的关系进行探讨。从我国人均能源消费和人均国内生产总值的折线图看出两者具有上升趋势，且均表现出非平稳的特征。实证分析结果表明：两者存在长期的稳定均衡关系。建立误差修正模型后，发现两者具有短期波动，且误差修正项的系数为负，符合反向修正机制。本文揭示了人均能源消费与人均国内生产总值增长的动态关系，同时也针对此关系提出了如何保持能源可持续发展的政策性建议，特别是大力倡导建立节约型社会，使经济结构向能源节约型和集约型发展。  ABSTRACT The relationship of energy consumption and economic growth is one of the hottest issues in the research of energy economics. The relation between energy consumption and GDP is very important to Chinas energy and the environment for the sustainable economic development. From aspect of per capita energy consumption and per capita economic growth, the relationship of the two was explored. Based on the 1980 to 2005 Chinas per capita energy consumption and per capita gross domestic product data, using cointegration analysis and error correction model, the relationship between the two was discussed. The broken line on Chinas per capita energy consumption and per capita GDP showed that the two have rising trend, and have the characteristics of non-stationary. Empirical analysis shows that, there exists long-term stability of balanced relations between the two. The establishment of error correction model proved that they have short-term fluctuations, and error correction had the negative factor, coordinate with reverse mechanism. In this paper, the dynamic between the per capita energy consumption and per capita gross domestic product growth was revealed. At the same time, policy recommendations to maintain the sustainable development of energy, so that the economic structure change in to a energy –saving and intensive model was put forward, in particular, strongly advocating the establishment of a conservation-oriented society. Key words per capita energy consumption; per capita GDP; cointegration test; the er