利率决定.ppt

International Financial Management Lectures 34 Exchange Rate Determination Exchange Rate Determination Three basic approaches Parity conditions Balance of Payments Asset market These theories are not competing theories but complimentary ones Along with an understanding of the theories, an understanding of the complexities of international political economy, societal and economic infrastructures, and random political and social events is needed when viewing the foreign exchange markets Exchange Rate Determination Infrastructure weaknesses were among the major causes of the exchange rate collapses in emerging markets in the late 1990s Speculation contributed greatly to the emerging market crises. Uncovered interest rate arbitrage caused by extremely low interest rates in Japan coupled with high real interest rates in the US was a problem in the 1990s Exchange Rate Determination Cross-border foreign direct investment and international portfolio investment into emerging markets dried up during the recent crises Foreign political risks have been much reduced in recent years as capital markets became less segmented from each other and more liquid Finally, note that most determinants of spot exchange rates are also in turn affected by changes in the spot rate – in other words, they are not only linked but mutually determined Exchange Rate Determination Balance of Payments The balance of payments accounts are those that record all transactions between the residents of a country and residents of all foreign nations. They are composed of the following: The Current Account The Capital Account Statistical Discrepancy The Official Reserves Account The Current Account Includes all imports and exports of goods and services Includes unilateral transfers of foreign aid If the debits exceed the credits, then a country is running a trade deficit The Capital Account The capital account measures the difference between U.S. sales of assets to foreigners and U.S. purchases of foreign a