北京地区水泥市场研究报告.ppt

I:\active\RGL7\Working\DK\RGL7_3IP_Final with TJv1.ppt 北京地区水泥市场研究报告 Appendix We will assess the demand situation by looking at historical demand, forecasts of demand and the influencing factors Beijing’s dramatic pre-mix concrete growth has been driven mainly by civil and Olympics projects Experts and industry participants agree that the usage of site-mix concrete is minimal in Beijing Privatization of SOEs is underway in Beijing implying decreasing captive transactions in the future Future Beijing pre-mix concrete demand is expected to peak in 2007 with an estimated volume of 43 million cubic meters Prior to 2008, most of the pipeline projects are still concentrated largely around the city center According to the 2020 city plan, development of satellite towns will be come a main focus starting from 2007 Beijing demand summary We will assess Beijing’s supply situation by looking at the competitive environment, raw materials, and industry profitability Beijing’s concrete supply is fragmented with the top players holding less than 5% market share individually The top 20 concrete suppliers all produced over 350k cubic meters of concrete in 2004 and accounted for over 35% of the market Concrete plants are concentrated around the Fifth Ring Road outside the city center Respondents have indicated that captive supply accounts for a small percentage of concrete usage Many new players have entered the market in previous years Despite the many new players that have entered the market since 2002, the market has not become more fragmented at the top end; still, overall picture is fragmented Producers with larger historical volumes have managed to maintain their market shares by growing with the market Currently, cement supply is generally believed to be stable in Beijing Cement prices have dropped over the last two years but are expected to stabilize as a result of the consolidation that has occurred in the industry After its efforts in consolidating the cement mark