Emigration Intentions Mere Words or True Plans Explaining….pdfVIP

Emigration Intentions: Mere Words or True Plans? Explaining International Migration Intentions and Behavior Hendrik P. van Dalena,b and Kène Henkensb June 30, 2008 (a) University of Tilburg Department of Economics, and CentER P.O. Box 90153 NL-5000 LE Tilburg The Netherlands Email: h.p.vandalen@uvt.nl (b) Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI) P.O. Box 11650 NL-2502 AR The Hague The Netherlands JEL codes: J61, F22, D84 Keywords: emigration, intentions, behavior, public domain Abstract Do people follow up on their intentions? In this paper we confront the emigration intentions formed by inhabitants of the Netherlands during the year 2004-2005 and the emigration steps they took in the subsequent two years. Three results stand out. First, it appears that intentions are good predictors of future emigration: 24 percent of those who had stated an intention to emigrate have actually emigrated within two years time. Second, within the group of potential emigrants, those who have emigrated and those who have not yet emigrated, do not differ much from each other. The potential emigrants who have not yet emigrated are in poorer health. Third, the forces that trigger emigration intentions are also the same forces that make people actually move. 1. Introduction Testing theories of international migration is often done by employing one of the two dominant methods in social sciences: by using either revealed preferences or stated preferences. The revealed preferences approach is often preferred by economists (Borjas 1987, 1991; Hatton and Williamson 1998, 2004) who interpret the actual movements of people as a reflection of preferences. Social demographers, geographers and psychologists prefer the use of stated preferences, i.e. intentions (De Jong 2000; Van Dalen, Groenewold and Schoorl 2005). However, the interest of economists in social for