中国的社会转移支付及其宏观经济效应.DOC

Macro Impact of Social Transfer Schemes in China Lu Mai (China Development Research Foundation; Development Research Center of the State Council) Yu Jiantuo (China Development Research Foundation) （）Abstract: This paper reviews the development of social transfer schemes in China since 2000 and investigates the impacts of these transfer schemes on poverty, income distribution, and consumption. An analysis of the 2003 and 2007 rural household data in six provinces and a municipality shows that these programs significantly reduce poverty. Analysis based on data from China Statistical Yearbook shows an insignificant effect of social transfer schemes on mitigating income distribution in rural areas, as against a growingly visible effect in urban areas. The analysis also shows an obvious positive correlation between the income derived from transfer schemes in both urban and rural areas and households’ consumption of education, health care, and housing. In urban areas, transfer income and expenditures on human capital related items even show a higher correlation coefficient than non-transfer income. In rural areas, the positive correlation between transfer income and total consumption and human capital related consumption becomes stronger over time. Keywords: social transfer, poverty reduction, income distribution, consumption. I. Introduction In modern society, the social transfers play manifold roles in economic and social development. First, if it is properly targeted to the poor, social transfer will be an important means of the government to mitigate income inequality and to alleviate poverty, and thus promote social equity. Secondly, many social transfer schemes may play a role of social safety net and reduce the uncertainty of income/expenditure expectation, and hence helps reduce the level of precautionary savings and stimulate consumption. Thirdly, from a dynamic perspective, social transfer schemes on education and health care will promote the accumulation of h