中国的汇率政策和亚洲贸易.doc

本科毕业论文外文翻译 外文题目：CHINA’S EXCHANGE RATE POLICY AND ASIAN TRADE 出 处：New Finance,2009(9) 作 者：Alicia Garcia-Herrero, Tuuli Koivu 原 文 : Abstract This paper shows empirically that China’s trade balance is sensitive to fluctuations in the real effective exchange rate of the renminbi. However, the current size of the trade surplus is such that exchange rate policy alone will probably not be able to address the imbalance. The potential reduction in the trade surplus resulting from an increase in the renminbi exchange rate is limited mainly because Chinese imports do not react as expected to a renminbi appreciation – they tend to fall rather than increase. By estimating bilateral import equations for China and its major trade partners, we find that the reaction for imports is generally confirmed for China’s trade with Southeast Asian countries. That result might be attributable to Asia’s vertical integration, as a large share of Chinese imports from Southeast Asia are re-exported. We also find that total exports from a number of Asian countries react negatively to a renminbi appreciation, which points to a dependence of Asian countries’ exports on those of China. Keywords: China, trade, exports, real exchange rate I. Introduction China’s share in world trade has increased extremely rapidly during the past years. In fact, it is already one of the largest exporters in the world, together with Germany and the United States. Until recently, China’s trade balance was very close to zero. According to Chinas customs statistics, its trade surplus amounted to mere USD 32 billion (or 1.7% of GDP) in 2004 (Graph 1). However, since 2005 the trade surplus has ballooned: it reached nearly USD 180 billion in 2006 (close to 7% of GDP) and increased further in 2007, to more than 10% of GDP. On the one hand, Chinese policymakers appear to be mai