ford战略分析报告－摩根斯坦利(ppt 67).ppt

Presentation to the Automotive News World Congress ;Disclosures;Disclosures;Disclosures;Overview;Global Light Vehicle Sales: Slow Growth;Global Sales Forecasts: 2003 - 2004;U.S. Sales;Japanese SAAR;Western European SAAR;Global Excess Capacity at 25%-30%or 20mm units;CapEx / DA FY2003E: OEMs Spending for Growth;Zero Sum Game;Modest Demand Growth;Light Vehicle Sales Trend Line Demand;Light Vehicle Sales Cycle: Trough to Trough;Weighted Median Age of a Vehicle vs. Sales;Off Lease Vehicles Begin to Decline;Average Maturity of Vehicle Loans (months);Taking Longer to Establish Consumer Equity;Economic Conditions ;Affordability Near 25 Year Best;Intense Competition; ;Excess Capacity More Is On The Way;Revenue Pressures Worst Since 1970’s;Y/Y Change in Monthly New Car CPI;Price Reductions Pressure Manufacturers;Big Three Market Share Continues to Slide;Market Share Winners / Losers – FY03;Big Three Share of Sales by Segment: FY-03 vs. FY-02;US Dollar per Euro: Jan 03 - Present;Japanese Yen vs. U.S. Dollar;Yen to US Dollar Price Sensitivity: YTD 03;Weaker Dollar Could Help a Little;Global Operating Margins FY02 ;Higher Rates Could be a Negative;Auto Finance Terms: Fall 2001 vs. Now;GMAC / FMCC Borrowing Costs;Big 3 Opportunity: Actual Quality is Better than Perceived Quality;The Big Three: Positives Negatives;Big Three Relative Stock Performance: 2003;General Motors;GM Market Share;U.S. Healthcare Pension Cost/Unit FY03;GM Pension Funded Status: 2003 Update;GM Has Built Inventory in 2003;Financial Service Earnings Unlikely to Match 2003;GM New / Replacement / Redesigned Products;Ford Motor Company;F Market Share;F vs. GM Cash Flow;F Auto Pre-Tax Profit, 1999-2004E;F Geographic Pre-tax Profit: 3Q03 vs. 3Q02;F New / Replacement / Redesigned Products;F New Product Monitor;GM/Ford Outlook; What They Say;DaimlerChrysler;DCX Market Share;DCX Car Lt. Truck Sales As A % of Parent;Chrysler DCX Operating Margins;DCX New / Replacement / Redesigned Products;Implications;Suppl