基于PDS GP模型分析汉江流域降雨极值特征精选.pdf

Journal of Water Resources Research 水资源研究, 2015, 4, 120-129 Published Online April 2015 in Hans. /journal/jwrr /10.12677/jwrr.2015.42014 Analysis of Rainfall Extreme in Han River Basin Based on PDS/GP Model Dan Li, Shenglian Guo, Xingjun Hong State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan Hubei Email: 54dli@163.com th st th Received: Mar. 28 , 2015; accepted: Apr. 21 , 2015; published: Apr. 27 , 2015 Copyright © 2015 by authors and Hans Publishers Inc. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution International License (CC BY). /licenses/by/4.0/ Abstract The monthly rainfall of 15 meteorological stations in Han River basin from 1961 to 2010 was taken as case study. Two methods of mean residual life and change of parameters were combined to determine the proper thresholds for each data series, and the fit residuals method was adopted to reduce the un- certainty during the process. Partial duration series (PDS) and annual maximum (AM) series were ob- tained and fitted by General Pareto (GP) and Pearson Type III (PIII) distributions, respectively. The PDS/GP and AM/PIII models were constructed and used to analyze rainfall extreme variations and pre- dict rainfall quantiles with 20a, 50a, 100a and 200a return periods for each station. The results and comparison indicated that the estimates supplied by AM/PIII model were mostly lager than that of PDS/GP model, while the differences were not so much significant because of the temporal and spatial variations of the monthly rainfall extremes. Keywords Rainfall Extreme, Han River Basin, Return Period, PDS/GP Model, AM/PIII Model 基于PDS/GP模型分析汉江流域降雨极值特征 李 丹，郭生练，洪兴骏 武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室，湖北 武汉 Email: 54dli@163.com 收稿日期：2015年3月28 日；录用日期：2015年4月21 日；发布日期：2015年4月27 日 作者简介：李丹(1980-