中国海运行业研究.pdf

2009. 8. 4 China marine China not immune to global downturn Research Center Eunkyung Park (82-2)2020-7850 / eunkyung44.park@ Hae-In Jin (82-2)2020-7784 / hi1008.jin@ Contents 1. Investment summary 2. Global marine industry: Worries over new vessel deliveries to linger through mid-2010 3. Chinese marine industry: To overcome downturn earlier and secure long-term growth 4. Company descriptions 1. Investment summary Investment Summary China not immune to global marine industry downturn but may be able to turn crisis into opportunity Global marine industry: Worries over new vessel Chinese marine industry: To overcome downturn deliveries to linger through mid-2010 earlier and secure long-term growth 1. Bulk carriers: BDI to show high volatility on supply uncertainties 1. Chinese securing cash cow - Demand to get better and better. Unexpectedly strong iron ore imports by - Chinese marine companies more active on short routes—ie, domestic China in 1H to be sustained in 2H on cheap import prices, while demand coastal routes (oligopolistic) and intra-Asia routes (the world’s most from developed nations should revive from 2H. used)—that are seeing solid freight volume growth, while Korean and - Supply to grow faster than demand, however. Some expect mild oversupply Japanese rivals focus on transpacific and Asia-Europe routes. With their given unexpectedly strong demand in 1H and behind-schedule supply two target segments enjoying solid containership demand growth, Chinese growth. But oversupply looks inevitable even assuming aggressive order marine