区域路网交通安全风险分析及管控策略研究.doc

区域路网交通安全风险分析及管控策略研究 沈鸿飞，贾利民* ( 北京交通大学 交通运输学院，北京 100044) 摘要: 以往我国道路交通安全问题研究多以单因素和特定环境、场景安全为主，缺乏 整体路网环境下的预先安全管理研究，本文针对当前我国区域路网交通安全特点和网 络化管理需求，应用风险管理理论，提出包含风险辨识、风险评估、风险控制三个主要过 程的区域路网交通安全风险分析框架，研究并指出区域路网环境下交通安全风险分析 及管理的关键环节及重点，从宏观政策、技术改进和组织协调机制等方面提出降低区域 路网交通安全风险的管控策略，将对交通安全的事后管理变为预先监管，提高政府对路 网交通安全监管的水平和技术手段． 关键词: 公路运输; 区域路网; 交通安全; 风险分析框架; 管控策略 中图分类号: 文献标识码: U492 A Regional Road Network Traffic Safety Risk Analysis and Control Strategies SHEN Hong-fei，JIA Li-min ( School of Traffic and Transportation，Beijing Jiaotong University，Beijing 100044，China) Abstract: Facing the challenges of road traffic safety management，the existing researches on traffic safety and risk analysis are mainly based on single factors，specific event settings and scenarios． There still lacks the proactive safety management oriented research in the whole network environment． Based on the clarification of the current regional safety characteristics and network management requirements，this paper puts forward a regional safety risk analysis framework containing three main processes， namely， risk identification，assessment and control，with respect to risk management． The key link and content of risk analysis and management under the regional network environment are defined and outlined． From the macroscopic policy， technology improvement and organization and coordination mechanism， this paper proposes a risk control strategy hierarchy including the control strategies at the macro-scale，meso-scale and micro-scale levels respectively with the aim of reducing regional risk． It proves the possible transition from passive safety management to proactive management and provides technical measures for government safety management． 收稿日期: 2011-06-16 修回日期: 2011-08-29 录用日期: 2011-09-08 基金项 目: 国家道路安全行动计 划“交通安全信息集 成、分 析 及 平 台 构 建 技 术 开 发 与 示 范 应 用 ”课 题 ( 2009BAG13A01) ; “山区公路网安全保障技术体系研究与示范工程”课题( 2009BAG13A02) ． 作者简介: 沈鸿飞( 1974 － ) ，女，黑龙江哈尔滨人，博士生． Key words: highway t