[信息与通信]LIGHTCOUNTING：互联网泡沫10年后光通信产业现状.pdf

State of the Optical Communications Industry State of the Optical Communications Industry 10 years after the internet bubble 10 years after the internet bubble September 2009 September 2009 © Copyright 2009 LightCounting All material proprietary and confidential. Industry Supply Chain as of 2009 Industry Supply Chain as of 2009 © Copyright 2009 LightCounting All material proprietary and confidential. 2 Industry Supply Chain as of 1999 Industry Supply Chain as of 1999 Alcatel Fujitsu Lucent Marconi NEC Nortel © Copyright 2009 LightCounting All material proprietary and confidential. 3 Profitability across the supply chain Profitability across the supply chain © Copyright 2009 LightCounting All material proprietary and confidential. 4 Sales of Optical Components by 2000 Sales of Optical Components by 2000 50-100 % annual growth © Copyright 2009 LightCounting All material proprietary and confidential. 5 2000 Forecast and Reality 2000 Forecast and Reality © Copyright 2009 LightCounting All material proprietary and confidential. 6 What has gone wrong? What has gone wrong? • Technological challenges • Does Moore’s law really work in optics? • Forecast issues • What is the real traffic growth rate? • How is it correlated with sales of optical components? • Business model issues • Can vendors be profitable selling commodity products into a consolidate customer base?