种粮行为与中国粮食生产流通市场化.doc

种粮行为与中国粮食生产流通市场化研究 ——基于农民种粮行为问卷数据 A Study on Marketization of the Grain Production and Distribution of China ——Based on Grain Production Behavior 2011年6月 【摘 要】中国粮食政策所面临的最大的选择是：粮食生产和流通主要应由政府主导还是市场主导？这在学术界分歧很大，政策走向也不明朗。要回答这个问题，就需要研究农民的种粮行为，尤其是对价格等利益信号的反应，分析粮食生产的外部性和弱质性以及粮食市场的竞争性等。为此，本研究调查了从人民公社时期的1976年到2008年的农民的种粮行为。研究发现，价格等利益信号直接影响农民对粮食生产的投入从而影响产量，农业的弱质性经不起严格考证，粮食市场具有最强的竞争性，农业具有弱负外部性而非流行的正外部性。由此得出结论：中国的粮食生产和流通应主要由市场主导。研究还发现，中国的粮食安全是一个被夸大了的问题，粮食有过量储存之嫌，确定国有粮企为流通主渠道是对粮食市场中其他参与者平等竞争的限制，从而影响流通的成本和效率，支农政策有悖论性质，城乡分隔的户籍制度是诸多“三农”问题的根源。 【关键词】种粮行为 粮食政策 市场主导 政府主导 Abstract The most important choice in grain policy formulation is whether the grain production and distribution should be government-oriented or market-oriented. The issue is debated heatedly in the academic circle, and the direction of the policy evaluation is ambiguous. To solve this issue, we have to study the grain production behavior of farmers, especially the reaction of the farmers to the interest signals，such as price etc., and understand some characteristics of agriculture，like externalities, weakness and competitiveness of grain market, based on which many scholars believe the government orientation is necessary. So, we conducted a survey of grain production behavior of farmers from 1976 in the period of the People’s Commune to 2008. The empirical study suggests that interest signals affect farmers’ decision on the inputs and therefore the output. Besides, we argue that the so-called weakness of agriculture is basically groundless, the competitiveness of the grain market is very strong, and the agriculture has the negative externalities rather than the positive externalities as most scholars believed. Therefore, it is concluded that the grain production and distribution should be oriented by the market, rather than by the government. It is also concluded that the issue of food security of China is somehow exaggerated, the grain is overstored, the policy of positioning the state-owned grain enterpris