一种人口老龄化的预测模型.doc

本 科 毕 业 论 文 (2008届) 题 目 一种人口老龄化的预测模型 学 院 理 学 院 专 业 信 息 与 计 算 科 学 班 级 2004 级 A 班 学 号 学生姓名 指导教师 完成日期 2008年6月1日 一种人口老龄化的预测模型 姓名：xx 指导教师：zzz 摘 要 由于近年来中国人口老龄化发展的迅猛，以及一些地区老龄化问题的持续出现，一系列的社会问题应运而生，这些问题迫在眉睫，已经引起社会各界的高度重视。本文就是针对中国和上海地区的人口老龄化问题做出一些模型预测。主要是运用Leslie矩阵结合人口动态发展模型对中国人口老龄化问题进行预测和分析，以及运用差分方程给出上海地区人口老龄化问题的一些预测数据，以便相关部门对养老制度的一些措施进行完善，所以本次课题有着一定的前瞻作用。 关键词：Leslie矩阵 差分方程 老龄化 Matlab A Kind of Mathematics Model about Aging Population Student: Xu Hao Advisor: Zhu Yong Zhen School of Science, Zhejiang University of Science and Technology Abstract In recent years, the rapid aging of china’s population and continued emergence of aging problem in some areas have resulted in a series of pressing social problems. These problems have already aroused great attention in our society. This thesis tends to make some model projections on the problem of aging in shanghai and China. This thesis mainly adopts Leslie matrix based on the development model of population dynamics to forecast and analyze China’s aging problem. Differential equations are used to get some forecasting statistics of the aging problem in Shanghai for the sake of relevant department’s further improvement of pension system. Therefore, this issue has a certain role in the future. Keywords: Leslie matrix，Differential equation，Ageing，Matlab 目 录 摘要········································································i Abstract····································································ii 目录········································································iv 前言········································································1 第一章 人口老龄化理论·······················································3 1.1 人口老龄化的理论知识···············································3 1.1.1 人口老龄化的定义····················