计算机专业毕业论文现代公交公司的路线调度和信息化服务平台外文翻译.doc

摘要 发展公共交通，利用公共交通交通资源高效率，解决城市交通问题进一步提高公共交通必然更有效运营调度车辆，更准确地提供车辆到站信息这也就对其核心基础——公共汽车行程时间预测提出了更高的要求公共汽车行程时间预测，论文最后以路公共汽车线路的实测数据，对本文建立的公共汽车行程时间预测模型进行了验证评价。关键词：公共汽车，行程时间，预测Abstract Developing bus system has been a main means of solving the problem of traffic in cities, which can use the traffic resources concentratedly and increase the efficiency of passenger transportation. However, if we want to improve the level of services of bus system, it is much important dispatching the buses optimally and offering vehicle arrival information precisely. Then the forecasting arrival time becomes more pivotal. In this paper, after reviewing the related research and development inside and outside our country, the bus operating characters and the factors that could affect the bus travel time are analyzed. Based on the dynamic data from AVL and APC which can be equipped on buses, an integrated model is developed to forecast bus travel time (including the running time and dwell time), which use Kalman filter algorithm as the core. Additionally, single bus as main object is studied in detail, in order to estimate the delay time in signal intersection, and the original model referred before is improved. With the actual data from a bus line of Shanghai City, we apply the model and analyze the prediction result of bus travel time. In the end, we summarize the characters of the model set up in this paper. Key Words: bus, travel time, prediction 目录 摘要 I Abstract II 目录 I 第一章 绪论 2 1.1研究背景 2 1.1.1 城市交通问题日益严重 2 1.1.2 交通信息的作用逐渐增强 2 1.1.3 公交服务的迫切需求 2 1.2研究目的和意义 2 1.3 研究内容 2 第二章 研究综述 2 2.1 智能公交系统简介 2 2.2 公交行程时间计算与预测研究综述 2 2.2.1 国外研究概况 2 2.2.2 国内研究概况 2 2.3 研究述评 2 第三章 基于GPS数据的行程时间计算与预测 2 3.1 公交交通特性分析 2 3.2 公共汽车行程时间影响因素分析 2 3.2.1 路段行驶时间 2 3.2.2 交叉口延误时间 2 3.2.3 公交停靠延误时间 2 3.3 行程时间计算与预测的系统和数据需求 2 3.4 公交行程时间计算与预测 2 3.4.1 行程时间预测研究综述 2 3.4.2 公交行程时间预测模型的设计原则 2 3.4.3 公交行程时间预测模型研究思路 2 3.4.4 基于历史数据回归的行程时间预测动态模型 2 第四章 公交行程时间计算与预测集成系统设计 2 4.1 系统结构设计 2 4.1.1 数据接收模块 2 4.1.2 系统数据库初始模块 2 4.1.3 数据库存储与处理模块 2 4.1.4 公交到