应用precis生成用户友好型气候情景数据中国气候变化信息网.ppt

应用PRECIS生成用户友好型气候情景数据Generating User-friendly Climate Scenarios with PRECIS Yinlong XU （许 吟隆）中国农业科学院 Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture (IEDA), Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) Beijing, China Tel: +86 10 8210 9766; Tel Fax: +86 10 8210 6012 E-mail: xuyl@ami.ac.cn 3-5 March, 2010 提 纲 Outline 工具和方法 Model and Methodology 气候变化情景结果分析 Some Analysed Results on Climate Change Scenarios 情景数据的订正 Correction of Climate Scenarios outputs 气候情景的验证和应用 Validation of the Corrected Climate Scenarios 应用举例 Examples of Applications 存在问题及未来工作展望 Problems and Prospects for Future Work 降尺度分析示意图/Downscaling A demo for RCM downscaling PRECIS模型/What is PRECIS? PRECIS—Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies Purpose 1: to develop the regional-level SRES climate scenarios over the world Purpose 2: to provide the datasets for the impacts assessments of climate change at the regional-level 目的一、发展区域水平的、高分辨 率的SRES气候情景 目的二、为评价模型提供高分辨率 的SRES气候情景 PRECIS区域/Domain of PRECIS PRECIS 作业现状/PRECIS Job Status NCEP re-analysis data: 1979-2003 ECMWF re-analysis data: 1957-2001 ECMWF re-analysis data: 1979-1993 HadCM3（英国） Baseline (1961-1990): No1 No2 No3 A2 (2071-2100): No1 No2 No3 B2 (2071-2100) : No1 A1B (1961-2100): No1 No2 No3 ECHAM4（德国） A2 (1961-2100): No1 B2 (1961-2100) : No1 最高气温/Maximum Temperature—拉萨/Lhasa、成都/Chengdu 辐射Solar Radiation—西安/Xi’an、郑州/Zhengzhou B2情景下中国区域气候变化响应的统计分析—740个台站—最高/低气温 Cliamte Change Responses over whole China under B2 scenario—Maximum/minimum temperature B2情景下中国区域气候变化响应的统计分析—740个台站—降水Cliamte Change Responses over whole China under B2 scenario----precipitation A2情景下气候变化的响应Cliamte Change Responses over whole China under A2 scenario (2080s vs1961-1990) Extreme Climate Events Criteria-1气候极端事件的指标—之一 高温热浪发生频率和持续时间Changes of Heatwave, 2080s vs 1961-1990 高温热浪发生频率和持续时间Changes of Heatwave, 2080s vs 1961-1990 数据应用(一)Application of the