北京生态足迹变化和对可持续发展的影响研究.doc

北京市生态足迹变化和对可持续发展的影响研究 (The Change of Ecological Footprint and Its Effect on Sustainable Development in Beijing in China) 张 颖 （北京林业大学经济管理学院，中国北京，100083） ZHANG Ying (College of Economics and Management, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, P.R.China) 摘要 加快生态环境保护和建设是北京迎“绿色奥运”的重要内容，深入研究并提出生态环境保护和建设的有效途径，对首都“绿色奥运”的开展，社会经济的协调发展和生态环境的管理等具有重要的价值和意义。文章通过对1990—2003年北京市生态足迹的变化的研究认为，北京市人均生态赤字与人口、GDP表现出明显的相关性，其相关系数均达0.92左右，在人均生态足迹项目上，化石燃料用地占主导地位。在人均生态承载力上，北京市约为全球人均生态承载力的1.25%，从1990年开始，人均生态赤字为0.72hm2左右，处于强度不可持续状态。研究建议北京市应尽快进行社会经济结构调整、严格控制人口的增长，严格控制建筑用地对土地的占用，提高能源利用率，降低能源消耗等，减少生态赤字，促进社会经济协调和可持续发展。 关键词：北京市 生态足迹 生态承载力 环境保护 可持续发展 Abstract Speeding up the environmental protection and construction is one of the major issues in “Greener Olympic Games” held in Beijing in 2008. Making a thorough study to find out the reliable measures to ecological resumption in Beijing has an important scientific and practical significance. It can provide scientific basis for making a better decision for “Greener Olympic Games” held in capital Beijing and development in harmony for society and economy, as well as management for ecological environment. By studying of change of ecological footprint from 1990 to 2003 in Beijing, this paper shows that ecological footprint per capita has a strong relativity with population and GDP, and both of the correlation coefficient between them are about 0.92, as well as the fossil energy land has a position in the lead in ecological footprint items. The study also shows that the ecological capacity per capita in Beijing occupied about 1.25% in global ecological capacity per capita. Began 1990, the ecological deficit in Beijing was about 0.72 hm2, it is at strong unsustainable development at present. Finally, the paper suggests social and economic structure should be adjusted as soon as possible, resources should be strengthen sustainable used and population increasing should be controlled strictly, as well as arable land also should be under control