基于Fuzzy_AHP的电力企业运行与维护外包风险分析及评价.docx

基于Fuzzy－AHP的电力企业运行与维护外包风险分析及评价俞璇，杨育，文颖，张峰，赵川（重庆大学机械工程学院，重庆400030）摘要：电力企业运行与维护外包是电力企业一种新的管理模式，其主旨是将电厂的运行与维护外包给专业的运营公司，目的在于降低发电成本，使商业利润最大化，同时使电力企业更加专注于自身核心业务，提高企业竞争力。但是它在创造高收益的同时不免产生高风险，而电力企业运维外包的风险研究在我国尚属空白，立足这一现状，尝试运用了AHP与模糊数学综合评价法相结合的数学方法对其进行分析与评价。首先阐述了外包及电力企业运维外包的概念、特点，在此基础上通过资料调研与专家访谈，遵循系统性、科学性、可操作性、可比性的评价指标选取原则，构建出一套系统而全面电力企业运维外包风险评价指标体系，包括5个基准层（一级）因素和17个指标层（二级）因素；其次根据电力企业运维外包风险评价中的层次性和模糊性，运用层次分析法确定了风险层次、进行了两两因素间的重要性权重专家打分及各阶层判断矩阵的构造，确定了各指标对其上层因素的权重，再运用模糊数学理论建立评价模型，包括各级的模糊评判模型的构建、评判指标处理方法的选择及最终风险的评判标准。最后通过算例验证该评价体系的有效性和可行性。关键词：电力企业运维外包；风险评价；层次分析法；模糊数学综合评价法中图分类号：F203文献标识码：A文章编号：1006－0316(2010)06－0037－05AnalysisandevaluationofelectricpowerenterpriseoperationoutsourcingriskbasedonFuzzy-AHPYUXuan，YANGYu，WENYing，ZHANGFeng，ZHAOChuan(CollegeofMechanicalEngineering，ChongqingUniversity，Chongqing400030，China)Abstract：Electricitypowerenterprisesoperationandmaintenanceoutsourcingisanewbusinessmanagementmodel,itsmainpurposeistooutsourcetheplantoperationandmaintenancetoprofessionaloperatorssoastoreduceelectricitycostsandmaximizethebusinessprofit,atthesametimethepowerenterprisescanfocusontheircorebusiness,enhancethecompetitiveness.Butwhileitcreateshigh-yieldproduction,itisinevitablyveryrisky,andthestudyofelectricpowerenterpriseoperationoutsourcingriskisstillblankinChina.Basedonthissituation,trytoanalysisandevaluationitbyusingtheF-AHPevaluationmethod.Firstly,TheconceptandmodelcharacteristicsoftheelectricpowerenterprisesOperationOutsourcingwereanalyzedcomprehensively,andasetofassessmentindexesofelectricpowerenterprisesOperationOutsourcingriskwasestablished,including10firstlevelindicatorsand37secondlevelindicators;accordingtothehierarchyandambiguityoftheelectricpowerenterprisesOperationOutsourcingRisk,themethodcombinedwithAHPandFuzzywasproposed:theweightofeachindicatortoitsupperfactorwasdeterminedbasedonAHP,thenevaluationmodelwasbuiltwiththeuseoffuzzymathematicaltheory.Finally,thefinaladoptionofnumericalexampledemonstratedtheeffectivenessandfeasibilityoftheevaluationsystem.Keywor