变压器油温的预测控制研究.docx

毕业设计（论文）中文题目：变压器油温的预测控制研究英文题目：The Study of Temperature Control forTransformer Oil Based on Forecasting中文摘要变压器在当今的电力系统中起着十分重要的作用，因此保证变压器安全稳定地工作有着重要意义。变压器的油温是变压器运行过程中需要监控的重要数据之一，它反映了变压器的负载能力，同时也影响着变压器的使用寿命。本文通过分析变压器的发热、散热原理，从理论上推导了变压器顶层油温变化的数学模型，为后续对其进行温度预测控制奠定了基础。系统以灰色理论GM（1,1）模型为理论基础，由当前温度和历史温度数据预测出一定时间之后的变压器顶层油温温度。通过判定条件控制风机的开启与关闭，以保证变压器顶层油温不越限，达到控制目的。本装置以51内核单片机为核心控制器件，以温度传感器DS18B20采集温度并通过数码管显示，除此之外上限温度可以通过数字键盘设定并显示。风机的启停控制利用继电器进行强弱电隔离，使变压器的任何干扰都不会威胁控制系统的运行安全。关键词：变压器，顶层油温，单片机，温度预测AbstractTransformer plays an important role in today’s power system, thus ensuring transformers security and stability of work has a great significance. The temperature of the transformer is a key data during transformer operation, and it decides the quantity of its load and the ability of its overload. Moreover, it has an effect on the transformer longevity. Through the analysis of transformer heating and cooling principle, theoretically derived mathematical model of the change for oil temperature and laid the foundation for follow-up to its temperature predictive control. The equipment software has the function for temperature forecasting by GM(1,1). From the current temperature and the historical data, transformer top oil temperature can be forecasted by us. The fans turn on or turn off can be controlled by us by determine he conditions to ensure that, the temperature of transformer oil is not more limited to the control purposes. The apparatus uses AT89C52 as the microcontroller. Digital temperature sensor DS18B20 is used to detect the current temperature. The relay is applied to control the cooling fan and keep apart of the weak and strong electrical. The measures have taken to make sure any jams coming from the transformer can’t enter the system. Keywords:Transformer, temperature, microcontroller, predictive第1章绪论1.1课题背景及研究意义电在人们的生产、生活中发挥着举足轻重的作用，而变压器作为电力系统中的一个重要设备在电力工程领域得到了广泛的应用，与其相关的各种新型变压器及其冷却技术也得到了快速发展。变压器在运行过程中会产生一定的损耗，这些损耗最终会转化为热能，使变压器本体各部件的温度高于环境温度，如果变压器某一部件的温度超过材料的耐受温度，将缩短变压器