中级宏观经济学Government Debt参考.ppt

Government Debt In this chapter, you will learn… 关于美国政府债务的规模，与其他国家相比，是怎样的。 度量预算赤字的问题。 关于政府债务的传统的观点和李嘉图Ricardian的观点。 其他的关于债务的观点。 Indebtedness of the world’s governments Ratio of U.S. govt debt to GDP The U.S. experience in recent years 1980s早期到 1990s早期 debt-GDP ratio: 25.5% in 1980, 48.9% in 1993 due to Reagan tax cuts, increases in defense spending entitlements 1990s早期 到2000年 $290b deficit in 1992, $236b surplus in 2000 debt-GDP ratio fell to 32.5% in 2000 due to rapid growth, stock market boom, tax hikes 从2001以来 the return of huge deficits, due to Bush tax cuts, 2001 recession, Iraq war The troubling fiscal outlook The U.S. population is aging. Health care costs are rising. Spending on entitlements like Social Security and Medicare is growing. Deficits and the debt are projected to significantly increase… Percent of U.S. population age 65+ U.S. government spending on Medicare and Social Security CBO projected U.S. federal govt debt in two scenarios Problems measuring the deficit 1. Inflation 2. Capital assets 3. Uncounted liabilities 4. The business cycle MEASUREMENT PROBLEM 1: Inflation 假设实际债务保持不变，这意味着a zero real deficit. 在该情况下the nominal debt D 以通货膨胀率的速度增长: ?D/D = ? or ?D = ? D 报告的赤字 (nominal) 是 ? D ，尽管实际赤字是零。  所以，从报告的赤字中减去? D来修正通货膨胀的影响。 MEASUREMENT PROBLEM 1: Inflation 修正通货膨胀对赤字的影响非常重要，特别是通货膨胀很高的时候。 Example: In 1979, nominal deficit = $28 billion inflation = 8.6% debt = $495 billion ? D = 0.086 ? $495b = $43b real deficit = $28b ? $43b = $15b surplus MEASUREMENT PROBLEM 2: Capital Assets Currently, deficit = change in debt Better, capital budgeting:deficit = (change in debt) ? (change in assets) EX: Suppose govt sells an office building and uses the proceeds to pay down the debt. under current system, deficit would fall under capital budgeting, deficit unchanged, because fall in debt is offset by a fall in assets. Problem w/ cap budgeting: Determining which govt expenditures count as capital expenditures. MEASUREMENT P