科尔尼给浙江电信做的市场预测报告（英文版）.ppt

Table of Contents Market Forecast Key Target Customers Product Strategy Strategic Partnerships Channel Strategy Brand Strategy Organization In order to forecast CKAD’s addressable market, we developed a 80demand forecasting model We consider three fundamental scenarios to account for major sources of uncertainties Depending on scenarios, CKAD’s addressable market in wireless and fixed wireless solution will reach from RMB 14.3 to 23.2 billion by 2007 CKAD will directly target from 49% to 59%of the total wireless and fixed-wireless markets in Zhejiang Based on customer location, Hangzhou, Wenzhou, and Ningbo are the cities with largest wireless and fixed/wireless markets CKAD’s addressable market in wireless and fixed-wireless will evolve over time towards larger companies Manufacturing, Construction, Transportation, Banks and Education are the largest sector for wireless and fixed-wireless solutions CKAD’s addressable fixed line market will grow from RMB 2.3 bn in 2003 to 3.8 bn in 2007 – half of demand coming from Hangzhou, Ningbo and Wenzhou Specific revenue targets for CKAD have been developed at city level Number of A, B, C companies and their employees CKAD’s potential wireless and fixed/wireless markets CKAD’s potential fixed line market CKAD target number of users CKAD city level revenue targets Overall, CKAD should target to double its revenue in 5 years from 2003 level 1 - * Strictly Confidential Key Assumptions Mobile penetration of Zhejiang will increase at a decelerating rate to approximately 67% in 2007 Key SMS usage per user will increase at a decelerating rate 2.5G/3G based wireless data penetration will resemble the internet penetration over number of years introduced with certain upward adjustment Key Sources of Data Source: A.T. Kearney analysis Extract: Zhejiang Telecom Market Model ZMCC MII Market survey IDC Zhejiang Statistics Bureau Analyst reports, Merill Lynch, CSFB OECD Data Estimate by city Estimate by product 2.5G/3G Market and ZMCC reve