选择区域模拟试验的qump子集中国气候变化信息网.ppt

? Crown copyright Met Office ? Crown copyright Met Office ? Crown copyright Met Office ? Crown copyright Met Office Selecting QUMP sub-sets for Regional Modelling Experiments选择区域模拟实验的QUMP子集 David Hein (acknowledgment to Dr. Carol McSweeney ) ACCC Meeting 3rd March 2010 Table of Contents目录 Introduction to Ensemble Regional Prediction and QUMP 区域预测集合与QUMP的简介 Key Questions 主要研究问题 Selecting ‘best performing’ models from the Hadley Centre QUMP GCM ensemble for South East Asia 根据Hadley Centre关于东南亚研究的QUMP GCM集合 选择运行最佳的模型 Systematic sampling of members that represent the full range of QUMP regional sensitivity 代表QUMP区域敏感性范围的系统抽样子集 Does the QUMP ensemble represent the same range of regional sensitivity/uncertainty for South East Asia in models assessed in IPCC AR4 (i.e. the CMIP3 models)? QUMP集合是否代表与IPCC AR4评定的东南亚模型中区域敏感性/不确定性有同一范围（如CMIP3模型） Some conclusions and arising issues 结论和所引发的问题 Ensemble regional prediction: Issues and approaches区域预测集合：问题和方法 The major uncertainties in simulated broad-scale climate changes come from global climate models 模拟大规模气候变化的较大不确定性来自全球气候模型 Global climate models provide information which is often too coarse for applications--thus downscaling is required 全球气候模型提供的信息对于应用来说时常过于粗糙，因此要求缩小模型规模 To provide the best possible information currently available we need to: 要提供最佳现行可应用信息，我们需要 Consider the full range of simulated climate changes from the global climate models 考虑全球气候模型中各种模拟气候变化 Downscale these to provide information relevant to applications which accounts for this range of possible future climate changes 缩小模型中那些应用于影响未来气候变化相关信息的部分 Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions:量化模型预测不确定性 Basic explanation:基本说明 Take a global climate model (HadCM3). 应用全球气候模型（HadCM3） Ask experts which of the parameters in the model are (a) uncertain and (b) important. 咨询专家模型中哪些参数是不确定的和重要的 Run multiple simulations with different values of those parameters 在不同参数值下运行出各种模拟值 More technical explanation:更多技术说明 Parameter perturbation: Cha