世界杯指数报告 2014.pdf

The World Cup Index: what can the dismal science tell us about the beautiful game? Contents Executive summary 1 Key features of our analysis 2 Money can’t buy World Cup success 2 Quantity of players and footballing interest is important to success 4 Tradition matters… but so does recent form 5 Home advantage bodes well for Brazil… and for the rest of South America 5 Are England perennial underachievers? 6 Who is in the ‘Group of Death’? 7 Annex: Technical details of regression models 9 Contacts and services 11  Contents Executive summary As the 2014 World Cup in Brazil draws closer, there is Instead, we found a number of football-specific increasing interest in what makes a successful World variables which explain World Cup performance Cup nation. This paper (which builds on an earlier better, such as the number of registered football one in 2010) contributes to this debate by using players in each country and average football econometric analysis to test the correlation between attendance levels. The other factors that we found to be several variables and World Cup performance. We important were a long-term footballing tradition and aim to answer the following questions: recent form as reflected in the FIFA world rankings.  Which characteristics explain historic