基于联合分析的市场调查与新产品市场预测精选.doc

目录 基于联合分析的市场调查与新产品市场预测···································1 摘要················································1 关键词···············································1 1. 引言··················································1 2．联合分析及最大效用值预测模型概述····································2 2．1 联合分析法············································2 2．1．1 联合分析的基本原理及基本假定································2 2．1．2 基本联合分析模型······································3 2．2 联合分析中三种市场占有率方法的比较································3 3．联合分析法在品牌经营策略中的应用····································4 3．1 确定品牌关键属性及属性水平····································5 3．2 模拟MP5产品的属性水平组合····································6 3．3 正交试验设计···········································6 3．4 数据收集与整理··········································7 3．4．1 使用SPSS进行联合分析···································7 3．4．2 使用SAS进行市场分析及市场预测·······························9 4． 结论与展望···············································12 5．实验小结··················································12 参考文献·····················································13 附录·························································13 基于联合分析的市场调查与新产品市场预测 摘要：在系统分析联合分析方法一般原理的基础上，通过对mp5的市场分析，研究了如何运用联合分析方法分析消费者的购买行为，并通过对mp5市场的实际分析得出产品的特征效用，各种产品组合的市场占有率的预测。联合分析的基本思想是通过假定某些产品具有某些属性，对现实的产品进行模拟，然后让消费者根据自己的喜好对这些虚拟产品做出心理判断，按其意愿程度给产品组合打分排序，然后按数理统计方法将这些特征与特征水平分离，从而对每一特征及特征水平做出量化评价方法，达到分析研究消费者选择行为的目的，因此它的基本原理是在确定产品特征及其水平的基础上进行模拟产品的消费者喜好程度评价，进而采用数理统计的方法确定效用函数，从而达到揭示每一项特征及其水平效用的目标，最终找出符合消费者消费心理的最优产品组合。 关键词：联合分析；产品属性；市场占有率；效用值；产品预测 1. 引言 在当今的中国市场上，尤其是校园市场上，MP5已经成为市场上最耀眼的电子产品之一。无论是厂商新产品发布的速度，还是产品的降价幅度，在电子产品历史上都是前所未有的。拥有音乐播放、电子书、照相、视频，玩游戏，储存文件等功能，这些功能为MP5高速发展提供了广阔的产品销售市场。MP5开发市场在迅速发展，而在广大的顾客群中，我们也越来越多地听到关于购买MP5的呼声，尤其是在大学校园里，这种呼声日益强烈，因为MP5比MP3具有更多的功能，如能照相、看视频、玩游戏等；MP5与电脑和数码相机相比，有体积小、价格便宜、携带方便的特点，可以带着在课堂上使用，也能在走路时，出游时等各个场合使用，而且关键是能够听音乐放松心情，看视频学习文化知识和娱乐，照相留下美好的瞬间。这诸多的功能和使用的便利使得MP5逐渐成为学生在校园里的新宠。 鉴于学生MP5市场存在广泛的市场空间，企业要成功开发学生MP5的市场，就要在开发新的MP5产品时，准确地对各种类型的MP5进行市场调查预测出拟开发新产品的市场占有率。而联合分析中的最大效用值(Maximum Utility Mode1)