Growing Chinese coal use Dramatic resource and environmental implications 中国煤炭消耗的增长.pdf

ARTICLE IN PRESS Energy Policy 38 (2010) 2116–2122 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Energy Policy journal homepage: www.elsevier.co m/locate/enpol Growing Chinese coal use: Dramatic resource and environmental implications Malcolm Shealy a,, James P. Dorian b,1 a Senior Energy Analyst, PCI Inc., 16507 Paddock Run Road, Beaverdam, Virginia, USA 23015 b International Energy Economist, 6201 Benalder Drive, Bethesda, Maryland 20816, USA a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t Article history: Chinese coal consumption continues to rise as the country’s economy and industry expand. Coal is Received 11 May 2009 particularly critical for China’s fast-growing power sector, generating about 80% of electricity output. Accepted 1 June 2009 Notwithstanding the importance of coal and electricity, many international forecasts today under- Available online 13 August 2009 estimate their rising use in China. This paper acknowledges the current world financial crisis and Keywords: assumes that Chinese GDP growth to 2025 will not again approach double-digit levels. Using the China Coal scenario analysis, this paper demonstrates that even with conservative assumptions about Chinese GDP Power Generation growth and income elasticity of electric demand to 2025, the countr