我国电信资费政策与实践.ppt

VoIP Driving the Restruction of Telecommunications Prof. Kaili Kan Beijing Univ. of Posts Telecommunications ITU Future of Voice Workshop Geneva Jan. 16, 2007 Is VoIP Killing Telecom ? Telcos’ claim: VoIP is IT invading telecom VoIP robs voice revenue from telcos VoIP takes a “free ride” of telcos’ hard-built network infrastructure …… “The Martians are coming !” Telecom sector in turmoil: WHY ? Current Structure of Telecom Vertical integration: (OSI 7 layers) Network + Service History background: Shortage of bandwidth Single service:voice However, time has changed. Surplus Optical Bandwidth Bandwidth — telcos’ core product Cost of bandwidth: Infinite bandwidth over fiber Cost approaches zero: cross-Atlantic USD$0.0001/min. (ITU 1996) Price of bandwidth: Redundancy: Each telco builds its own fiber cables for vertical integration Price to be driven to zero even faster than cost The Killer Law of Economics: oversupply kills supplier Telcos killed themselves by oversupplying bandwidth Why blame it on VoIP ? Nothing to do with VoIP, except …… Telcos’ Options for Survival Option #1: Break “network + service” vertical integration: Build less, use more: open cable capacity to service providers Telcos become “hollow pipes” Option #2: Insist on “network + service” vertical integration: squeeze revenue/profit out of inefficient usage of bandwidth, Fact: many telcos chose Option #2. Telcos’ Strategy to Survive Voice: transmission (no “service”) Small bandwidth Lack of price elasticity Broadband data/video: Large bandwidth High price-elasticity Strategy: high-price for narrow-band voice, low-price for broadband data/video Classical case of 3rd class price-discrimination: Price reversely proportional to elasticity Conditions for Price-Discrimination Shortage of supply True before: copper, 1G, 2G, etc. NOT true now: fiber, 3G, Wi-Fi/ WiMAX Insulation of markets: no “cross-border smuggling” Role of VoIP Breaks insulation: “Smuggles” voice into low-priced broadb