不确定性因素分析及模拟方法.doc

复杂水电站群随机优化调度模拟研究 周冉, 杨侃, 郑姣,刘国帅 河海大学水文水资源学院，江苏 南京 210098 摘 要：水文预报的不确定性必然导致水库入库流量的随机性，从而使水库群发电优化调度也具备不确定性。鉴于确定性径流预报的水库群优化调度模型，未考虑径流预报及其不确定性，导致计算结果与水库实际运行情况存在较大差异，本文将随机模拟和水库群联合优化调度相藕合，提出考虑入库径流不确定性的发电调度模拟方法。随机模拟采用拉丁超立方体抽样方法对Monte Carlo方法进行改进，与传统抽样方法相比减少了抽样次数，提高了抽样精度。水电站群联合优化调度采用蚁群算法进行求解。此研究可模拟某一风险率下的水库群调度方案，将一个复杂的随机调度决策问题转化为确定性决策问题。以湖北省巨型水电站优化调度为例研究此方法的应用情况，得到了较满意的结果。 关键词：优化调度；随机模拟；蚁群算法 Simulation Study of Complex Multi-reservoir Stochastic Optimal Dispatching Ran Zhou , Kan Yang, Jiang Zheng,Guoshuai Liu College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai Univ., Nanjing, China, 210098 Email: zhour0114@163.com, kyang@ Abstract：The uncertainty of hydrological forecast will inevitably lead to the randomness of reservoir inflow, so the optimal operation of power stations also is uncertain. So there is a big difference between the optimal result and the actual operation. This paper combines random analysis method with optimal operation model of multi-reservoir, and proposes scheduling model considering the uncertainty of generating runoff forecast. The stochastic model uses the method of Latin hypercube sampling to improve Monte Carlo stochastic simulation method, which reduces the sampling frequency and improves the sampling accuracy compared with traditional sampling methods. The model is applied to analysis the uncertainty on the runoff forecast, and it is coupled with optimal operation of reservoirs to establish combined optimization operation model of reservoirs under considering of uncertainty. Ant colony algorithm is used to calculate the model. The model changes the decision-making of stochastic operation into that of determinable operation, thus the risk analysis for optimal scheduling can be obtained. The study case of Giant hydropower stations in Hubei Province shows that the method is satisfactory. Key words：optimal dispatching; random simulation; Ant colony algorithm 0引言 由于环境、输入资料、预报模型结构、预报参数等因素的影响，水文预报必然存在不确定性。径流预报结果作为水电站优化调度决策的输入信息，其随机特性必然导致水库运行方案的不确定性。径