2010CAAMeeting理解风险产险精算师如何为企业增加价值.ppt

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Understanding Risk:How Casualty Actuaries Add Value to an Organization理解风险：产险精算师如何为企业增加价值 Roger M. Hayne, PhD, FCAS, MAAA President, CAS What is an Actuary什么是精算师 An actuary is a professional who is skilled in quantifying the financial consequences of future contingent events精算师是量化未来或然事件所产生的财务影响的专业人员 Traditional Actuarial Roles传统的精算角色 All forward looking – look to expected future outcomes前瞻性 – 关注预期的未来结果 Future outcomes unknown未来的结果未知 A wide range of different hazards usually with unknown or incompletely understood processes多方面的危险因素 – 通常过程未知或者未被完全理解 Relatively short time to payout improves appreciation for uncertainty相对短的支付递延可以减低相关不确定性 Skills Developed技能锻炼 An understanding of the limitation of models对各模型局限性的理解 Knowledge that the hazard processes are often not completely known认识到危险过程往往不能完全理解 No matter how good the model the final outcome is uncertain无论模型如何完善， 最终的结果依然存在不确定性 Because of complexity the actuary needs to be creative in developing models to deal with new situations考虑到所面对问题的复杂性，精算师在建模时需要创造性地应对新的情景 Skills Developed技能锻炼 Actuarial methods look to past history to estimate future精算方法通过分析历史经验来预测未来结果 Changes in operations can affect how history applies to expected future运营的变化会影响到如何应用历史经验来预测未来结果 Thus traditional roles require an understanding of company operations因此传统的精算角色需要理解公司的运作 Actuary as CEO精算师成为首席执行官 A CEO needs to have an understanding of the entire operation首席执行官需要理解整个公司的整体运营 Appreciation and understanding of risk uncertainty helps a CEO assess the various opportunities and risks facing a company对风险以及不确定性的正确评价和理解能协助首席行政官评估公司所面对的各种机会和风险 The Actuary’s broad understanding of the business and of risk fit well into these requirements精算师对业务和风险的广泛认识切合这些要求 Actuary as CEO精算师成为首席执行官 Heidi Hutter, FCAS One of many actuaries who have served as CEO 众多曾担任过CEO的精算师之一 1993-1995 Project Director of Equitas 1993-1995年任Equitas项目主管 Served as Swiss Re America CEO 曾任Swiss Re America CEO Now a principal in Black Di