Fitch2010年欧洲货币联盟的收敛性报告.pdf

Sovereigns  Special Report  EMU Convergence Report: 2010  Analysts  Summary  Ed Parker The global financial crisis has caused a further setback to euro adoption timetables +44 20 7417 6340 in most EU member states in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), owing to a marked ed.parker@ increase in budget deficits, as well as higher sovereign bond spreads. The exception David Heslam is Estonia, which Fitch Ratings expects to join the euro area in January 2011. +44 20 7417 4384 david.heslam@ In its latest European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) Convergence Report, Douglas Renwick Fitch presents its latest assessments and forecasts for euro adoption dates: 2011 for +44 20 7417 4237 Estonia; 2014 for Lithuania; 2015 for Bulgaria, Hungary, Latvia, Poland and douglas.renwick@  Romania; and 2016 for the Czech Republic. These are most likely dates, but the risks are skewed towards longer delays. Related Research Sovereign Review and Outlook Deep recessions and (in the case of the Czech Republic and Poland) fiscal stimulus (December 2009) measures have taken a heavy toll on public finances. The (un‐weighted) average High Grade and Euro Area Sovereign Risk budget deficit in the eight countries increased from just 1.1% of GDP in 2007 to (March 2010) 6.1% in 2009, and many countries face a challenging and lengthy peri