三星2010年5月中国银行业研究报告.pdf

May 7, 2010 CHINA BANKS Sector 1Q results wrap up Update WHAT’S THE STORY? Event: Excluding in-line results at CMB and disappointing earnings at CITIC due to high costs, 1Q10 results at H-share banks all beat the Bloomberg consensus. Impact: The solid 1Q results were driven by asset growth and fee revenue, which offset weak NIM and rising provisioning. We expect top-line growth to be sustained in 2Q, while credit cost is a swing factor for the bottom line. On a QoQ basis, Minsheng’s and CCB’s bottom line outperformed in 1Q—we expect this to continue in 2Q. However, we expect 1H results at CMB and BCOM to outperform YoY . Positive earnings drivers for 1Q include: 1) Strong revenue growth: Revenue growth was primarily led by a surge in fee income (thanks to WM product sales, export/import activity, and corporate financing activities). We expect this driver to remain robust going forward. 2) Strong asset growth/ higher balance sheet gearing: The sector recorded 6% assets growth on average, driven by: 1) strong deposit growth (BCOM, CI