贸易及经济增长在日本和韩国的实证分析【外文翻译】_精品.doc

本科毕业论文外文翻译 外文题目： Terms of trade and economic growth in Japan and Korea:an empirical analysis 出 处： Empir Econ (2010) 38:139–158 作 者： Hock Tsen Wong 原 文： Terms of trade and economic growth in Japan and Korea:an empirical analysis 1 .Introduction Terms of trade and terms of trade volatility have a critical impact on economic growth, particularly during world episodes of global integration or disintegration when export prices converge or diverge worldwide, inducing large terms of trade changes andeconomy-wide responses . However, their in?uence is ambiguous. An increase in terms of trade could either lead to an increase or a decrease in economic growth. Generally, an increase in terms of trade will lead to an increase in investment and thus economic growth will increase. Mendoza, Bleaney and Greenaway , and Blattman et al. , amongst others, report a positive impact of terms of trade on economic growth. Eicher et al.develop an inter-temporal model to examine the impact of a decrease in terms of trade on current account and output, with the focus on a developing country. The model shows that a decrease in terms of trade will have a negative effect on income and wealth. In the long run, a decrease in terms of trade will lead to a proportional decrease in the debt level of an economy whilst output, capital, and borrowing will not change. Thus a change in terms of trade will only affect economic growth in the short run and not in the long run. A high terms of trade volatility will lead to the re-allocation of both input and output because of aversion to risk. This will involve costs and losses, and thus economic growth will decrease. This is particularly important where hedge markets are incomplete. Empirical studies into the impact of terms of trade and terms of trade volatility on economic growth are dominated by cross-count