2014年全球铁矿石市场展望.pdf

TACTICAL IRON ORE OUTLOOK March 2014 The Market The iron ore spot price (CFR China; 62% Fe Fines) extended its downward trend in February, declining 5% to average US$121/t. Iron ore demand in China remains lacklustre due to seasonal weakness coupled with persisting environmental issues.  AME forecasts iron ore spot prices to average US$122/t in the March quarter 2014 before recovering to US$125/t in the June quarter, supported by a pick-up in construction activities in China as the weather improves. Full-year iron ore prices are expected to average US$122/t as seaborne iron ore supply starts to outpace demand. Contrary to the declining spot price, Chinese port stockpiles lifted 8% to 106Mt at the end of February, reaching a new high within the month. Chinese iron ore imports continue to rise, with January imports amounting to 86.8Mt, 18% higher than the previous month. While high port stockpiles reflected position-taking activities by traders in anticipation of stronger demand going into March, sources have indicated an increase in financing deals associated with iron ore.  In July 2013, China scrapped its import licencing certification system for iron ore in an attempt to open up import operations to more market participants. This has provided more opportunities for smaller steel companies and traders to engage in iron ore financing deals in the face of tightening credit in the steel sector as China tackles environmental issues. It is estimated that over 20% of the iron ore at Chinese ports is involved in financing deals. Fundamentally, the seasonal weakness in the iron ore market has been aggravated by an increase in seaborne supply. This additional supply comes mainly from ramp-ups of major expansions in Australia and Brazil that commissioned last year, wit