亚洲2016年经济展望努力通过政策填补增速缺口.pdf

2016 … 2015 2016 … 2016 Asia 2016 economic outlook: Policy tries to fill the growth gaps For most of Asias economies, 2015 is shaping up as a year of modest disappointment. Despite a significant windfall from oil and other commodity prices, and easier monetary policy in a number of countries, growth has fallen short of aspirations across the region. Chinas Q3 GDP data posted 6.9% year-over-year growth, and alternative activity indicators suggest a slower pace, versus an around 7% government target. We expect Japan to have grown only 0.6% year-over- year in 2015, versus the Bank of Japan’s 2.1% forecast in January. Most other economies in the region have fallen short of investors and policymakers growth expectations at the beginning of the year (Exhibit 1). Exhibit 1: Mild disappointment in Asia 2015 growth outturns