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【学术】Complexity in social,Political,and economic systems
Complexity in Social, Political, and Economic Systems
Scott E Page
University of Michigan-Ann Arbor
Santa Fe Institute
We live in a time of rising complexity both in the internal workings of our social,
economic and political systems and in the outcomes that those systems produce.
Increasing complexity has implications for social science: it hinders our ability to
predict and explain and to prevent large deleterious events. To make headway
on the problems that animate social and behavioral scientists: economic
inequality, health disparities, achievement gaps, segregation, climate change,
terrorism, and polarization among voters we must acknowledge their complexity
through interdisciplinary teams. Harnessing complexity will require several
changes: we must develop practical measures of social complexity that we can
use to evaluate systems; we must learn how to identify combinations of
interventions that improve systems; we must see variation and diversity as not
just noise around the mean, but as sources of innovation and robustness; and
finally, we must support methodologies like agent-based models that are better
suited to capture complexity. These changes will improve our ability to predict
outcomes, identity effective policy changes, design institutions, and, ultimately, to
transform society.
Electronic copy available at: /abstract=1889359
Introduction
Confronting and harnessing complexity will be among the greatest challenges
facing social scientists over the coming decades. What, though, is complexity?
Complexity can refer to either the attributes of a system or to the outputs a
system produces: the social life of a city can be characterized as complex
because it has diverse actors, whose behaviors are interdependent, as can
prices in the stock market, a non stationary time series that features
unpredictable booms and busts.
No mere metaphor, complexity has been
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