Management 管理 培训-6.ppt

6 - Decision Trees example 例:某公司计划开发一种新产品,设计了豪华型和普及型两个型号:个型号: 豪华型: 成功盈利800万元，成功的概率为60%, 失败亏损300万元. 失败的概率为40%; 普及型: 成功盈利600万元. 成功的概率为70%. 失败亏损 30万元. 失败的概率为30%。 决策方案 自然状态及概率 支付值 期望值 * ? Prentice Hall, 2002 Chapter 06 DECISION MAKING: THE ESSENCE OF THE MANAGER’S JOB 6-* Learning Objectives You should learn to: 1,Outline the steps in the decision-making process 2,Explain why decision making is so pervasive in organizations 3,Describe the rational decision maker 4,Contrast the perfectly rational and bounded rational approaches to decision making 5,Explain the role that intuition plays in the decision-making process 6-* Learning Objectives (cont.) You should learn to: 6,Identify the two types of decision problems and the two types of decisions that are used to solve them 7,Differentiate the decision conditions of certainty, risk, and uncertainty 8,Describe the different decision-making styles 6-* Decisions choices from two or more alternatives all organizational members make decisions Decision-Making Process a comprehensive, 8-step process Step 1 - Identifying a Problem problem - discrepancy between an existing and a desired state of affairs must be such that it exerts pressure to act manager is unlikely to characterize a situation as a problem unless s/he has necessary resources to act管理者不太可能将某些事情作为问题，如果他们不具有采取行动的必要资源 1,Outline the steps in the decision-making process 6-* The Decision-Making Process Problem Identification “My salespeople need new computers” Identification of Decision Criteria Price Weight Warranty Screen type Reliability Screen size Allocation of Weights to Criteria Reliability 10 Screen size 8 Warranty 5 Weight 5 Price 4 Screen type 3 Development of Alternatives Acer Compaq Gateway HP Micromedia NEC Sony Toshiba Implementation of an Alternative Gateway Evaluation of Decision Effectiveness Analysis of Alternatives Acer Compaq Gateway HP Micromedia NEC Sony Toshiba Selection of an Alternative Acer