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世界农业供给与需求估计
World Agricultural Supply
ISSN: 1554-9089 and Demand Estimates
United States Department of Agriculture
Office of the Agricultural Marketing Service Economic Research Service
Chief Economist Farm Service Agency Foreign Agricultural Service
WASDE - 488 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board November 9, 2010
WHEAT: U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected 5 million bushels lower this month as
downward production revisions of 11 million bushels for Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat and 4 million
bushels for durum more than offset higher projected imports. Imports are raised 10 million bushels with
increases for Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat and durum. Exports are unchanged, but shifts among
classes result in higher projected exports of Hard Red Winter and HRS wheat and reductions for SRW
and durum. The projected season-average price received by producers is narrowed 5 cents on each
end of the range to $5.25 to $5.75 per bushel. Heavy early season marketings and forward sales limit
upside potential for the season-average farm price.
Global wheat supplies are projected slightly higher for 2010/11 as higher world production offsets lower
carryin, mostly reflecting higher 2009/10 wheat feeding in China. World production is raised 1.5 million
tons for 2010/11 as increases for Argentina, Australia, EU-27, and Paraguay more than offset
reductions for FSU-12 and the United States. Argentina production is raised 1.5 million tons as
favorable returns and timely rains boost area and yield prospects. Australia production is raised 1.0
million tons as rising yield prospects in eastern growing areas more than offset reductions from
extended dryness in Western Australia. Production is raised 0.6 million tons for EU-27 mostly based on
higher reported area for Poland. Pr
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