世界农业供给与需求估计.pdf

World Agricultural Supply ISSN: 1554-9089 and Demand Estimates United States Department of Agriculture Office of the Agricultural Marketing Service Economic Research Service Chief Economist Farm Service Agency Foreign Agricultural Service WASDE - 488 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board November 9, 2010 WHEAT: U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected 5 million bushels lower this month as downward production revisions of 11 million bushels for Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat and 4 million bushels for durum more than offset higher projected imports. Imports are raised 10 million bushels with increases for Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat and durum. Exports are unchanged, but shifts among classes result in higher projected exports of Hard Red Winter and HRS wheat and reductions for SRW and durum. The projected season-average price received by producers is narrowed 5 cents on each end of the range to $5.25 to $5.75 per bushel. Heavy early season marketings and forward sales limit upside potential for the season-average farm price. Global wheat supplies are projected slightly higher for 2010/11 as higher world production offsets lower carryin, mostly reflecting higher 2009/10 wheat feeding in China. World production is raised 1.5 million tons for 2010/11 as increases for Argentina, Australia, EU-27, and Paraguay more than offset reductions for FSU-12 and the United States. Argentina production is raised 1.5 million tons as favorable returns and timely rains boost area and yield prospects. Australia production is raised 1.0 million tons as rising yield prospects in eastern growing areas more than offset reductions from extended dryness in Western Australia. Production is raised 0.6 million tons for EU-27 mostly based on higher reported area for Poland. Pr