The Science of Better Practical operations research[精品].ppt

Business Analytics: The Past, Present and Future of Operations Research BCSI 2013 Michael Trick Tepper School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University The Past Package Delivery Internet Search Mail Delivery 2 The Past Package Delivery Internet Search Mail Delivery FAILED 3 The Past Package Delivery Internet Search Mail Delivery 4 The Past Package Delivery Internet Search Mail Delivery Salvagible? 5 Key Idea Operations Research 6 Operations Research 7 Business Analytics is a Hot Topic “Business analytics” 8 …. Maybe Operations research Management science Business analytics 9 Business Analytics Using data to make better decisions (what the best operations research has always been) Change in emphasis: more about data 10 The Past Package Delivery Internet Search Mail Delivery 11 The Past Package Delivery Internet Search Mail Delivery Google: Treat web pages as data; treat search as optimization 12 The Past Package Delivery Internet Search Mail Delivery 13 The Present Data Computer Speed Algorithms 14 The Present Data Computer Speed Algorithms 2013: $587 From BestBuy 15 The Present Data Computer Speed Algorithms Total speedup of OR Methods in 15 years: 1 billion times 16 Illustration: TSP with 2392 nodes 2011: Bill Cook and Concorde with iPhone 1987: Padberg and Rinaldi 17 18 Future: The OR Process Identify a Problem Formulate a Model Determine Decisions Objectives Constraints Get Data Estimate Missing Data Find Solution to Model using Mathematical Tools Validate Solution Is it reasonable? Sensitivity Implement Solution 19 The Business Analytics Process Identify a Problem Formulate a Model Determine Decisions Objectives Constraints Get Data Estimate Missing Data Find Solution to Model using Mathematical Tools Validate Solution Is it reasonable? Sensitivity Implement Solution Get Data Estimate Missing Data 20 Future is bright! IBM 2010 Annual report; contrast “cloud” at $7 b and smarter planet $10 b 21 The Future Linking Predictive and Prescript