买卖实例比较法实例权重之分析与模式建立.pdf

買賣實例比較法實例權重之分析與模式建立 ∗ ** 游適銘 、張金鶚 摘 要 買賣實例（市場）比較法為不動產估價的三種方法之一，一般需蒐集數個比較標的，經調整後之 試算價格決定比較價格。國外以數學計算式計算實例權重雖已相當普遍，但目前尚無應用特徵效用模 式，解讀實例權重形成與比較標的內部條件之關聯。本文設定特徵權重模型，發現比較法買賣實例權 重受價格型態、交易日期接近性、是否屬近鄰地區、實例差異百分率絕對值加總、實例比較項目修正 數、其他兩個實例相對值等自變數影響顯著。以 96 年各直轄市及縣市政府蒐集之 3,114筆 權 重 實 例 中，隨機抽取 90%推估樣本外 10%之實例權重結果，於重複測試十次結果，MAPE 甚小，且 Hit Rate 於 20%內甚高，符合本文設定之預測條件。本文直接預測實例權重探討權重問題核心，且對於實例權 重模型兼顧所分析實例本身以外之其他實例相對條件，實證結果能使預測準確度提高之發現，可供未 來不動產估價實務作業時，決定加權平均賦予實例權重之參考，俾提高估價科學化及客觀程度。 關鍵字 ：不動產估價、買賣實例比較法、實例權重 ∗ 國立政治大學地政學系博士，PhD, Department of Land Economics, National Chengchi University. Email ： moi0884@moi.gov.tw **國立政治大學地政學系教授，Professor, Department of Land Economics, National Chengchi University. E-mail ：jachang@nccu.edu.tw 0 Analysis and Model of the Weights from the Sales Comparison Approach * Shih-Ming You PhD, Department of Land Economics, National Chengchi University Chin-Oh Chang** Professor, Department of Land Economics, National Chengchi University ABSTRACT Sales comparison approach is one of the three real estate appraisal approaches to value. Since it is always required to collect several comparables, weighted average of those comparables into sales comparison value is commonly applied by using mathematical formula to calculate weights in past literature. However, the weights produced won’t necessarily be supported by market perspective only by means of mathematical calculation. After collecting 3,114 sales comparables with weight figure from every city and county, this paper examines the correlation between weight and internal attributes of 3,114 sales comparables adopting the hedonic price model. This paper finds the price type, the proximity of