居住用地供给对上海住房市场的影响基于动态存量一流量模型的实证研究.doc

居住用地供给对上海住房市场的影响——基于动态存量一流量模型的实证研究 2014年0日月尊是结晴管4#039;Aug.,2014 (第28卷第08.JtIJ)East China Economic Management (VoJ.28,No.08) [DOI] IO.3969/j.issn.1007-5097.2014.08.002 ·上海经济居住用地供给对上海住房市场的影响一一基于动态存量一流量模型的实证研究唐旭君1.2姚玲珍2( 1、，匕海对外经贸大学金融管理学院，上海20l620; 2.上海财经大学公共经济及管理学院，上海200433) 摘要:文章运用住房市场存受一流量模型，动态分析居住用地供给对新建商品住房供给J1...住房价格的影响，并据此模拟不同!l;位j们也供给思路下商品住房市场的运行状况。基于上海数据的实证分析发现:政府新增居住j白地供给对一定时期后的新建商品位房供给具有显著彩响;居住用地供给能够影响远期住房价格.但很难对当期住房价格产生影响。模拟结果显示:均加居住用地供给所能起到平抑房价的作用较为有限。据此提出，政府居住用地供给应着眼于长期，不宜依据短期住房市场状况进行频繁调整。关键词:居住用地供给;住房价格;存受一流量模型;土地政策调控中图分类号F#039;061.5文献标志码A文章编号∞7-5097(2014) 08-∞08一05Impact of Residential Land Supply Policy on Housing Market in Shanghai 一-AoEmpirical Study 00 the Basis of Dyoamic Stock-flow Model l2 TANG Xu-jun. 2, Y AO Ling-zhen( J. School o.f F??wnce, Shanghai University u.f Internωiona.[ BlI.siness (Ul.Il Economi门，Slwngh削201620.China; 2. Schuol’ifP nMic E(#039;()IW川ù:.samp; Arlmùti.5lratωn， Shanghai Univers??l)’ u.f Financeω1([ Economics, Shanghaι200433. China) Abstract: The papt:r dynamicaLly analyzes the impacls of residenliallal1d supply on new hOllsing supply and hOllsing price只byusing 111(; hOllsing markel slock-J1ow rnodel, and simlllales operational conditiol1s or the hOllsing markel under diHerenl ideas 01’ Lhe residential Jancl supply accordingly. lt finds thal, based on lhe empiricaJ unalysis ur tlte data frolll Shan吕hai，the govt;;rn??m创eI川1吐l#039;、玛11川l忱川ι町c阳reωf1比S巳0ωf 1;e盼s仙I(扣ntiall削a削ndsupply has a s厄ig♂伊n甘i白ficanti lt;mpaClon 山th阶eSlI叫p、p川|忖yof 附1l1ewhOLlsing 础a址f白础#039;怆t肝elr a 巳e创Ita??川nperiod; the resi??dentiallalld sllpply can affect lhe long-term hOLlsing prices, however it is diffjcu\t. 10 have an impact On the current housing p#039;才C#039;~~.The日il1lul[llionrcsults show lhat lhe increase of residenlialland ~L1pply ean only pJay a Jimiled role to stab.ilize hOllsing prices. H~lsed on t.he slurly. t.he paper proposes that the government.#039;臼residentiaJland suppJy should focLls on long-term, ancl 8holll(\ 1I0t make frequenl adjust