基于协整——误差修正模型的中长期电力负荷需求预测-电力系统及其自动化专业论文.docx

IIIcalculation examples, the result shows that the co-integration and error correction model has the advantages of feasibility and effectiveness. Finally, electricity consumption of 2012—2020 is forecasted.Keywords: Long-medium Term Power Load Forecasting; GM (1, 1) Model; Multiple Linear Regression Model ; Co-integration；Error Correction Model目录1 绪论........................................................................................................................................... 11.1 电力负荷预测意义........................................................................................................ 11.2 国内外研究进展............................................................................................................ 11.3 本文主要研究工作........................................................................................................ 62 电力负荷的预测分类和误差分析........................................................................................... 92.1 电力负荷预测的分类.................................................................................................... 92.1.1 按时间分类......................................................................................................... 92.1.2 按行业分类....................................................................................................... 112.1.3 负荷预测按特性分类....................................................................................... 122.2 影响负荷预测的因素.................................................................................................. 122.3 负荷预测的特点.......................................................................................................... 132.4 负荷预测的基本原理.................................................................................................. 132.5 负荷预测基本程序...................................................................................................... 152.6 负荷预测误差分析...............................................................................................