中尺度对流复合体的动力诊断与数值模拟研究-气象学专业论文.docx

姚学祥博士论文申尺度对流复合体的动力诊断与数值模拟研究AbstractDynmnical diagnosis，numerical simulation and theory analysis are done On genesis condition，structure，propagation and development mechanism of a mesoscale convective complex(MCC)which caused the first torrential rain in the Meiyu period of Yangtze River and Huaihe River Basins in June 22—23，2003．Reasons that the wrong forecast of the MCC was made by numerical weather prediction models and official forecasts are investigated and some cues to improve are suggested，tOO。The MCC formed and developed under the favorable environment by the interaction of weather systems of low and high latitudes in abmpt change period of East Asia general circulation．The MCC is composite of meso一Ⅱ、meso一13 and meso+￥scale convective systems which have different structure and motion features． Although circularly approximately on the satellite imagery，the MCC shows linear distributions of radar echo，torrential rain，thunderstorm，cumulonimbus andmesoscale physical parameters as a squall line．The multi-scale structures of MCCcause its multi—scale propagations that meso*Q、meso一13 and meso-v scale convective systems have their motion features。The movement of the MCC iS a mixture effect of various motions of meso—o、meso．D and meso-Y scale systems．The MCC develops mechanism is analyzed based on moist thermal wind theory,relatively mesoscale convectively generated vortex，Potential Vorticity Thinking， inertial instability theory and SO on．The meso一13 and meso一￥scale movement． structure and developing process ofthe MCC are simulated successfully by Weather Research Forecast model(WRF)。Keyword：Mesoscale convective complex，Rainstorm，Multi-scale,Dynamicaldiagnosis，Numeric simulation1引言1．1天气预报的发展与面临的闻遂20毽纪秘学羧零豹突毪猛遴，难动了世器天气预报饔盘匏教震。今天，天 气预报已成为人们生产生活必不可少的重要信息和减灾防灾的科学依据。同时， 社会和经济的发展，也对天气预报提出了照高的要求，社会对天气预报的精确度 与漆确率熬期望毽越来越裹。天气颓缀歪强羲蔫龋未有翡橇逶，癸辩氇逶到了罗 熏的挑战。-毫无疑问，天气预报仍将是21世纪的重点研究课题。在世界天气预报事业大发展的背景下，经过了54年的风雨历程，我国的业 务天气颈搬麸无裂凑、褥戮了迅遥豹发曩。我露天气颈报豢整款技震翅翁起来霹 以分为四个发展阶段：第～个阶段是20世纪50年代的初创阶段。以陶诗吉