Morgan Stanley - 澳洲经济周报.pdf

November 9, 2012 Australian Weekly Economic Review Preview Economics Research Week commencing 12 November 2012 Key focus in the past week: Tim Toohey The RBA’s decision to leave the cash rate unchanged on Tuesday surprised +61(3)9679-1079 tim.toohey@ the 20 (of 26) local economists forecasting a cut and many other Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd participants in financial markets (which were pricing a cut as a 46% chance just prior to the decision. While the decision was in line with our David Colosimo expectations, we acknowledge that our forecast December rate cut is now +61(3)9679-1085 david.colosimo@ looking somewhat less likely – given last week’s resilient labour market and Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd retail sales reports and also the signals from the RBA’s quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy. Andrew Boak +61(2)9321-8576 andrew.boak@ Key focus in the week ahead: Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd Mon: Housing Finance; Tues: NAB Business Survey, RBA’s Kearns speaks (12.30pm); Weds: Consumer Sentiment, Wage Price Index; Thurs: Inflation Philip Borkin expectations, Motor vehicle sales. +64(9)357-3206 philip.borkin@ Goldman Sachs New Zealand Limited The focus this week shifts to the major monthly household/business surveys, inflation (wage price index inflation expec