与气候一起飙舞.ppt

未來氣候變遷推估的科學信賴度 全球優於區域 全球與大部分地區平均氣溫明顯上升 海水溫度明顯上升 海面明顯上升 雨量變化信賴度較低，尤其是小區域 劇烈天氣與極端氣候發生頻率的變化，信賴度低 台灣：氣溫、海溫、海面上升的信賴度較高，其他不確定 氣候模式仍不夠完善 是「情境推估」！不是「預測」！ 風險評估的重要資訊 * * * FIGURE SPM-4. Comparison of observed continental- and global-scale changes in surface temperature with results simulated by climate models using natural and anthropogenic forcings. Decadal averages of observations are shown for the period 1906–2005 (black line) plotted against the centre of the decade and relative to the corresponding average for 1901–1950. Lines are dashed where spatial coverage is less than 50%. Blue shaded bands show the 5–95% range for 19 simulations from 5 climate models using only the natural forcings due to solar activity and volcanoes. Red shaded bands show the 5–95% range for 58 simulations from 14 climate models using both natural and anthropogenic forcings. {FAQ 9.2, Figure 1} * Figure SPM-7. Solid lines are multi-model global averages of surface warming (relative to 1980-99) for the scenarios A2, A1B and B1, shown as continuations of the 20th century simulations. Shading denotes the plus/minus one standard deviation range of individual model annual means. The number of AOGCMs run for a given time period and scenario is indicated by the coloured numbers at the bottom part of the panel. The orange line is for the experiment where concentrations were held constant at year 2000 values. The gray bars at right indicate the best estimate (solid line within each bar) and the likely range assessed for the six SRES marker scenarios. The assessment of the best estimate and likely ranges in the gray bars includes the AOGCMs in the left part of the figure, as well as results from a hierarchy of independent models and observational constraints (Figs. 10.4 and 10.29) * Figure 10.33. Projections and uncertainties (5 to 95% ranges) of global average sea level rise and its components in 2090 to 2099 (relative to 1980 to 1999) for the six SRES marker scenarios. The projected sea level rise ass